Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.394877 1.452210 1.511476 1.577492 1.649190 1.724945 1.811358
2026-01-11 1.321032 1.397265 1.478518 1.572089 1.677542 1.793530 1.931907
2026-01-18 1.270679 1.360123 1.457711 1.573064 1.707013 1.859368 2.048347
2026-01-25 1.212396 1.309063 1.416363 1.545708 1.699402 1.878911 2.108757
2026-02-01 1.173508 1.277005 1.393690 1.536914 1.710820 1.919176 2.194466
2026-02-08 1.138678 1.247365 1.371551 1.526401 1.718060 1.953044 2.272708
2026-02-15 1.107143 1.219820 1.350074 1.514763 1.722132 1.981798 2.344832
2026-02-22 1.086771 1.204315 1.341804 1.518129 1.744149 2.033554 2.450350
2026-03-01 1.052790 1.171111 1.310590 1.491178 1.725480 2.030137 2.478160
2026-03-08 1.025839 1.145422 1.287480 1.473161 1.717028 2.039142 2.523247
2026-03-15 1.004248 1.125493 1.270634 1.462160 1.716834 2.058696 2.584313
2026-03-22 0.995090 1.120400 1.271852 1.474122 1.747362 2.121901 2.715414
2026-03-29 0.988935 1.119206 1.278346 1.493786 1.790127 2.206377 2.890346
2026-04-05 0.972960 1.105158 1.267894 1.490368 1.800461 2.244030 2.993403
2026-04-12 0.960234 1.094767 1.261675 1.492167 1.817896 2.292896 3.119905
2026-04-19 0.937214 1.070693 1.237004 1.467954 1.796844 2.281690 3.140586
2026-04-26 0.922270 1.056546 1.224833 1.460324 1.799270 2.306612 3.227851
2026-05-03 0.907396 1.042105 1.211829 1.450994 1.798603 2.326321 3.307257
2026-05-10 0.892788 1.027657 1.198404 1.440550 1.795679 2.341979 3.380340
2026-05-17 0.884282 1.020863 1.194864 1.443694 1.812994 2.391210 3.524221
2026-05-24 0.865422 1.000201 1.172312 1.419223 1.787349 2.367677 3.518552
2026-05-31 0.850370 0.984251 1.155757 1.402840 1.773475 2.363155 3.551840
2026-06-07 0.838310 0.972000 1.143906 1.392829 1.768982 2.374186 3.619080